Stats' Spiel :: Woodland Football Breakdown: After Week 6

So now that the high school football season is past the halfway point in its regular season, things are beginning to take shape in the playoff races, both in Class SS and the NVL. Woodland has posted a 5-1 record thus far and is tied for 1st place in the NVL Copper Divison and are in 4th place in the Class SS Standings.

So first, we’ll take a look at the NVL Standings through the first 6 weeks of the season.

NVL Copper Standings
1. Woodland (5-1 overall; 3-0 division)
1. Naugatuck (5-1; 3-0)
3. Holy Cross (4-2; 2-1)
4. Kennedy (1-5; 1-2)
5. Sacred Heart (1-5; 0-3)
6. Torrington (0-6; 0-3)

NVL Brass Standings
1. Ansonia (6-0; 3-0)
1. Seymour (6-0; 3-0)
3. Crosby (3-3; 2-1)
4. Watertown (2-4; 1-2)
5. Wolcott (2-4; 0-3)
6. Wilby (1-5; 0-3)

So things are pretty much as we expected them, with Woodland, Naugatuck, and Holy Cross near the top of the Copper while Ansonia, Seymour, and Crosby in the upper half of the Brass. Going a little further than those three, Crosby obviously is out of the running in the Brass with the Chargers and Wildcats above them. Holy Cross’ loss to Woodland, in what was essentially a Copper and Class SS elimination game, likely knocks them out of contention in their division. To put it simply, there will be an informal championship game to determine the winners of each division:

Friday, November 2nd: Naugatuck at Woodland (both teams should be 6-1 heading in; the winner will win the Copper)
Thursday, November 8th: Ansonia at Seymour (both teams should be 7-0 heading in; the winner will win the Brass)

If I had to pick the winners of those games, I would go with Woodland and Ansonia. Naugatuck hasn’t played anybody besides Seymour, and they got completely shellacked (62-19) in that one. They are benefiting from an easy first part of the schedule (they finish the season with Woodland, Holy Cross, and Ansonia). I don’t see that game being too close, although Naugatuck has a good passing game, which could succeed against the sometimes porous Hawk secondary. In the end, though, too much Woodland.
In the other game, it might be Ansonia’s biggest test all year against the state’s most prolific scoring offense. Seymour, though, has played even lesser opponents than Naugatuck (that 62-19 victory over the ‘Hounds is their only impressive win) and will come in with much less big game experience than the Chargers. The Wildcats, though, will play Holy Cross in Week 7, so that could be a good warm-up game for their biggest one of the season. In the end, Seymour will probably give Ansonia their toughest game yet, but not enough. The bulk of Seymour’s offense is the quarterback option with Rob Moir, and if the Charger defense can eliminate that, it will be a long night for the ‘Cats.

So there’s my outlook on what’s to come in the NVL. Now we move onto the bigger goal, the Class SS playoffs. In the early season, it’s been a very tight race at the top of the standings. Entering Week 6, 13 teams in the class had either 1 or no losses. Woodland was in 9th place in the previous standings, but this past week shook the race up. 1-loss Holy Cross, Griswold, Plainfield, Housatonic/Wamogo, and Tolland suffered losses, as well as previously undefeated Old Saybrook/Westbrook. Take a look at the new standings:

Class SS Playoff Point Standings (After Week 6)
1. Stratford (6-0 record, 131.67 point average, 50 tiebreaker points)
2. Seymour (6-0, 130.00, 60)
3. St. Joseph (5-1, 108.33, 52)
4. Woodland (5-1, 100.00, 58)
5. Cheney Tech (5-1, 98.33, 42)
6. Stonington (5-1, 95.00, 46)
7. Bullard Havens Tech (4-1, 94.00, 36)
8. Old Saybrook/Westbrook (4-1, 92.00, 48)
9. Tolland (4-2, 90.00, 66)
10. Griswold (4-2, 81.67, 50)
11. Holy Cross (4-2, 78.33, 58)
12. Housatonic/Wamogo (3-2, 66.00, 38)
13. Plainfield (3-2, 64.00, 54)

The teams that won in Week 6–undefeated Stratford and Seymour, and 1-loss St. Joseph, Woodland, Cheney Tech, Stonington, and Bullard Havens Tech–now occupy the top 7 spots in the standings. Remember, only the top 4 make it to the Class SS Semifinals (Tuesday, November 27th, 6:30 PM at higher seed). So, who’s going to make it?

Well, let’s take a look at the Week 7 schedule for those top 13 teams first:

Class SS Week 7 Schedule:
Friday, October 26
Woodland (5-1) at Crosby (3-3)
Seymour (6-0) at Holy Cross (4-2)
Platt Tech (1-4) at Griswold (4-2)
New London (6-0) at Plainfield (3-2)
Montville (5-1) at Stonington (5-1)
Stratford (6-0) at Pomperaug (5-1)
Gilbert/NW Regional (1-5) at Tolland (4-2)
Saturday, October 27
Cheney Tech (5-1) at Bullard Havens Tech (4-1)
Ellington/Somers (5-1) at Housatonic/Wamogo (3-2)
North Branford (4-2) at Old Saybrook/Westbrook (4-1)
St. Joseph (5-1) at Danbury (2-4)

Basically, if any of the 2-loss teams fall this week, they’re done. Looking at those teams, Housatonic/Wamogo, Plainfield, and Holy Cross have huge games which they must win. Housatonic/Wamogo has to play 5-1 Ellington/Somers, which is bad news for them. It will take a big effort to get a win there and stay in the running. Plainfield has an even taller task of trying to beat undefeated, perennial power New London, who leads the Class S Standings. Sorry to say it, Plainfield, but that’s not going to happen. Finally, if Holy Cross wants any chance whatsoever, they must take care of unbeaten Seymour at Municipal Stadium. The Crusaders come in on a 2-game losing streak, and need to break it this week or wave goodbye to a 4th-straight trip to the Class SS Semis. I don’t doubt that it could happen, but it certainly would be an upset.

There are a couple more very intriguing games this week which will also have a large effect on the standings. There are a couple 1-loss matchups, including Montville at Stonington and Cheney Tech at Bullard Havens Tech. Stonington can make a statement if they can get a win. Both teams are “paper warriors”–the 10 opponents they have beaten have a total of 9 wins. Regardless, a 6-1 record will keep Stonington at the top of the class. Cheney Tech and Bullard Havens Tech will face off in a Class SS battle, with the winner having a distinct advantage over the other with a cupcake schedule heading out.

Perhaps the biggest game, not only in regards to Class SS, but in the state, this week is undefeated Stratford squaring off with 5-1 Pomperaug. Stratford has had 1 test thus far (beating Newtown, who is now 5-1), but this one is the biggest yet. If Stratford can win this game, they will finish no worse than 9-1, which all but assures them a playoff spot. A loss leaves the door open for others to sneak in. It will be a great game, with 2 of the best rushing offenses in the state going at it. It will be a shootout.

Woodland, Tolland, Griswold, and St. Joseph should have no major problems this week. The other game that warrants review is Old Saybrook/Westbrook vs. North Branford. Old Saybrook has a brutal schedule heading out, still having to play  Hyde and Haddam-Killingworth, so they desperately need this game to keep their chance at a playoff berth alive. Don’t expect anything, though–the 4 teams they have beaten have a combined win total of 2.

I think that Holy Cross, Plainfield, Stonington, Bullard Havens Tech, Housatonic/Wamogo, and Old Saybrook/Westbrook will fall. So the top 4 shouldn’t change–at least this week.

I predicted the 4 teams that would make the playoffs prior to the season: Stratford, Woodland, Seymour, and…St. Bernard/Norwich Tech. Now you have to give me a pass, my picking St. Bernard was a shot in the dark because I was simply going on what they did last year without any knowledge of this year’s team. But 3 out of 4 isn’t bad so far. I’m going to stick with at least Stratford and Woodland. I think they will end up 9-1. But those final spot seems up for grabs…

To determine which team is going to get in with those final spots, there is no better place to look than the last couple weeks’ schedule:

• Bullard Havens Tech: vs. Cheney Tech, at Platt Tech, vs. Wilcox Tech, at Bassick
• Cheney Tech: at Bullard Havens Tech, vs. Sports and Medical Sciences Academy, vs. Capital Prep, at Platt Tech
• Griswold: vs. Platt Tech, at Tourtellotte/Ellis Tech, vs. Windham, vs. Plainfield
• Holy Cross: vs. Seymour, at Sacred Heart, vs. Naugatuck, at Wolcott
• Housatonic/Wamogo: vs. Ellington/Somers, vs. Avon, vs. Windsor Locks/Suffield, at Stafford/East Windsor, at Gilbert/NW Regional
• Old Saybrook/Westbrook: vs. North Branford, vs. Valley Regional/Old Lyme, at Hyde, vs. Haddam-Killingworth, vs. Morgan
• Plainfield: vs. New London, vs. Fitch, at Montville, vs. Putnam, at Griswold
• Seymour: at Holy Cross, vs. Watertown, vs. Ansonia, vs. Woodland
• St. Joseph: at Danbury, at Wilton, vs. Brien McMahon, vs. Trumbull
• Stonington: vs. Montville, at Windham, at Ledyard, vs. Westerly (RI)
• Stratford: at Pomperaug, vs. Weston, vs. Nonnewaug, vs. Bunnell
• Tolland: vs. Gilbert/NW Regional, vs. Stafford/East Windsor, at Coventry/Windham Tech, vs. Ellington/Somers
• Woodland: at Crosby, vs. Naugatuck, vs. Kennedy, at Seymour

Now the best and worse case scenarios, and what I think the realistic scenario is for each team:

• Bullard Havens Tech: best- 8-1, worse- 6-3, realistic- 7-2
• Cheney Tech: best- 9-1, worse- 7-3, realistic- 9-1
• Griswold: best- 8-2, worse- 6-4, realistic- 8-2
• Holy Cross: best- 8-2, worse- 6-4, realistic- 7-3
• Housatonic/Wamogo: best- 6-4, worse- 6-4, realistic- 6-4
• Old Saybrook/Westbrook: best- 6-4, worse- 5-5, realistic- 6-4
• Plainfield: best- 7-3, worse- 4-6, realistic- 6-4
• Seymour: best- 9-1, worse- 7-3, realistic- 8-2
• St. Joseph: best- 9-1, worse- 6-4, realistic- 8-2
• Stonington: best- 9-1, worse- 6-4, realistic- 6-4
• Stratford: best- 10-0, worse- 8-2, realistic- 9-1
• Tolland: best- 8-2, worse- 6-4, realistic- 7-3
• Woodland: best- 9-1, worse- 8-2, realistic- 9-1

Alright so I’m not going to go through all of the games I picked, but I picked every one of them for a reason. Obviously any team 7-3 or worse is not going to make it, because I have 7 teams that are at least 7-2: Bullard Havens Tech, Cheney Tech, Griswold, Seymour, St. Joseph, Stratford, and Woodland. The 9-1 teams–Cheney Tech, Stratford, and Woodland–would be in. (If Cheney Tech does get in, I’ll say something about it then, because there is no way they deserve to make it.)

So that leaves it to the rest–Bullard Havens, Griswold, Seymour, and St. Joe’s. And it’s all going to basically come down to who they played and how well those opponents did. Based on right now’s tiebreaker points, Seymour will have the most. But because Bullard Havens plays only 9 games, their point average could be helped out. That’s all going to have to play itself out. St. Joseph has a great chance to get in because all of their remaining opponents are in Class LL or L, so they will get more points for those wins. Griswold probably has the least chance of getting in with an 8-2 mark, but who knows. I would have to say if they all end up like I predict them to, St. Joseph would get in as the final seed.

But that’s why they play the games.

STATS OUT.

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